forex online: 2007

Forex trading basics

Forex Market Basics

The Foreign Exchange market (also referred to as the Forex, FX market, "Cash" Forex or Spot Forex market ) is the largest financial market in the world, with more than $1.5 trillion changing hands every day — 30 times larger than the combined volume of all U.S. equity markets. Another major feature of the Forex market is that it operates 24 hours a day, corresponding to the opening and closing of financial centers in countries all across the world, starting each day in Sydney, then Tokyo, London and New York. At any time, in any location, there are buyers and sellers, making the Forex market the most liquid market in the world.

What to trade in Forex Market?

In the forex market, currency trading is always done in currency pairs, such as EUR/USD or GBP/USD. Accordingly, all trades result in the simultaneous buying of one currency and the selling of another. The base currency is the "basis" for the buy or the sell. It is useful to consider the currency pair as an instrument, which can be bought or sold.

Understanding Forex quote

Base currency: The first currency in the pair.
Counter Currency: The second currency in the pair. Also known as the terms currency.

The US dollar is the centerpiece of the Forex market and is normally considered the ’base’ currency for quotes. This includes USD/JPY, USD/CHF and USD/CAD. For these currencies and many others, quotes are expressed as a unit of $1 USD per the second currency quoted in the pair. For example, a quote of USD/CAD 1.1302 means that one U.S. dollar is equal to 1.1302 Canadian dollar.

BID and ASK Prices

When trading forex you will often see a two-sided quote, consisting of a ’bid’ and ’ask’. The ’bid’ is the price at which you can sell the base currency (at the same time buying the counter currency). The ’ask’ is the price at which you can buy the base currency (at the same time selling the counter currency).

Commission-free, but with spreads

Most Forex brokers offer commission-free Forex trading. Spread - The difference between the bid and ask price of a currency. Normally 3-5 pips on the Majors.

Rollover - What happens to my open positions at the end of the trading day?

Process whereby the settlement of a deal is rolled forward to another value date. The cost of this process is based on the interest rate differential of the two currencies. Most brokers will automatically roll over your open positions, allowing you to hold a position for an indefinite period of time.

Leverage & Margin

The leverage available in forex trading is one of main attractions for many traders. Leveraged trading, or trading on margin, simply means that you are not required to put up the full value of the position. Forex brokers provide more leverage than stocks or futures. In forex trading, the amount of leverage available can be up to 400 times the value of your account.

Essential Elements of a Successful Trader

Courage Under Stressful Conditions When the Outcome is Uncertain

All the foreign exchange trading knowledge in the world is not going to help, unless you have the nerve to buy and sell currencies and put your money at risk. As with the lottery “You gotta be in it to win it”. Trust me when I say that the simple task of hitting the buy or sell key is extremely difficult to do when your own real money is put at risk.

You will feel anxiety, even fear. Here lies the moment of truth. Do you have the courage to be afraid and act anyway? When a fireman runs into a burning building I assume he is afraid but he does it anyway and achieves the desired result. Unless you can overcome or accept your fear and do it anyway, you will not be a successful trader.

However, once you learn to control your fear, it gets easier and easier and in time there is no fear. The opposite reaction can become an issue – you’re overconfident and not focused enough on the risk you’re taking.

Start by analyzing yourself. Are you the type of person that can control their emotions and flawlessly execute trades, oftentimes under extremely stressful conditions? Are you the type of person who’s overconfident and prone to take more risk than they should? Before your first real trade you need to look inside yourself and get the answers. We can correct any deficiencies before they result in paralysis (not pulling the trigger) or a huge loss (overconfidence). A huge loss can prematurely end your trading career, or prolong your success until you can raise additional capital.

Both the inability to initiate a trade, or close a losing trade can create serious psychological issues for a trader going forward. By calling attention to these potential stumbling blocks beforehand, you can properly prepare prior to your first real trade and develop good trading habits from day one.

The difficulty doesn’t end with “pulling the trigger”. In fact what comes next is equally or perhaps more difficult. Once you are in the trade the next hurdle is staying in the trade. When trading foreign exchange you exit the trade as soon as possible after entry when it is not working. Most people who have been successful in non-trading ventures find this concept difficult to implement.

For example, real estate tycoons make their fortune riding out the bad times and selling during the boom periods. The problem with trying to adapt a ’hold on until it comes back’ strategy in foreign exchange is that most of the time the currencies are in long-term persistent, directional trends and your equity will be wiped out before the currency comes back.

The other side of the coin is staying in a trade that is working. The most common pitfall is closing out a winning position without a valid reason. Once again, fear is the culprit. Your subconscious demons will be scaring you non-stop with questions like “what if news comes out and you wind up with a loss”. The reality is if news comes out in a currency that is going up, the news has a higher probability of being positive than negative (more on why that is so in a later article).

So your fear is just a baseless annoyance. Don’t try and fight the fear. Accept it. Have a laugh about it and then move on to the task at hand, which is determining an exit strategy based on actual price movement. As Garth says in Waynesworld “Live in the now man”. Worrying about what could be is irrational. Studying your chart and determining an objective exit point is reality based and rational.

Another common pitfall is closing a winning position because you are bored with it; its not moving. In Football, after a star running back breaks free for a 50-yard gain, he comes out of the game temporarily for a breather. When he reenters the game he is a serious threat to gain more yards – this is indisputable. So when your position takes a breather after a winning move, the next likely event is further gains – so why close it?

If you can be courageous under fire and strategically patient, foreign exchange trading may be for you. If you’re a natural gunslinger and reckless you will need to tone your act down a notch or two and we can help you make the necessary adjustments. If putting your money at risk makes you a nervous wreck its because you lack the knowledge base to be confident in your decision making.

Patience to Gain Knowledge through Study and Focus

Many new traders believe all you need to profitably trade foreign currencies are charts, technical indicators and a small bankroll. Most of them blow up (lose all their money) within a few weeks or months; some are initially successful and it takes as long as a year before they blow up. A tiny minority with good money management skills, patience, and a market niche go on to be successful traders. Armed with charts, technical indicators, and a small bankroll, the chance of succeeding is probably 500 to 1.

To increase your chances of success to near certainty requires knowledge; acquiring knowledge takes hard work, study, dedication and focus. Compile your knowledge base without taking any shortcuts, thereby assuring a solid foundation to build upon.

Trading Symmetric Triangles

Although some of the more well know chart patterns to trade off of include the Cup and Handle, Double Bottom and Flat Base another chart pattern to look for is the Symmetric Triangle.

The Symmetric Triangle pattern usually occurs after a stock makes a significant move over a short period of time and then pulls back for a few weeks before making another significant move upward. The weekly chart of OMNI below shows that it made a quick move in early November of 2003 and then developed a Symmetric Triangle. OMNI then broke out again in the early part of December and doubled in price over the next four weeks.

Another example is shown by RADN which formed two separate Symmetric Triangle patterns in November and December of 2003 before moving higher.

Thus recognizing those stocks which are forming a Symmetric Triangle pattern can lead to substantial gains if they break out to the upside.

Questions From Email Inbox

Thank you for inviting people to learn from your experience. I found that to be very generous. I was hoping you may be able to shed little light on just how to go about finding the right currency pairs to buy.

This is where charting software will make it self-evident for you to know what pairs are ’trending’. Technical analysis using charting software: Elliott Wave, Retracements, Fibronacci patterns, short term trending, etc. Good charting software is invaluable! Look at it as one of your ’costs of doing business’.

I have just begun learning how the FOREX works. There are so few opportunities for the lower economic class to achieve financial independence.

It took us a full year to learn to trade forex to achieve consistent profits, but well worth the time and effort. Forex trading can be the great leveler of the self-investor playing field. I and we believe that with dedication to sound, risk-management trading methods you can succeed.

I’m trying to build a financial base, but I just can’t find a door in. Is it possible for me to participate directly in the FOREX with smaller amounts - like $1000?

Beginning with $1K. is more of a challenge and more of a risk (but not impossible). $1K represents 1 lot in Forex Trading, and that is the minimum (leveraged) trade that can be made. Perhaps that $1K would be better spent on trading education?

I have participated in Forex ’Games’ and other types of online investments that claim to be investing in Foreign Currency (among other things), with returns of 50% a month and more. I actually did get paid. Opinions please?

We strongly urge you to resist any further temptation to send your money away to an investment-type pool (by this we mean do not send your money away to be under someone else’s control and in someone else’s account). It is unjustified risk, there are much better ways to begin to experience profits from forex trading. Many such online investments have totally disappeared into the Internet ethers from which they came. Typically these investments give no contact information, claiming to be ’offshore’, ’for privacy reasons’. They last a few months, their bulletin boards or email newsletters extoll their climbing numbers of ’members’ and pay-outs, then without warning their site goes off-line forever. And you never knew who they were that disappeared with your trust and your money or e-gold.

How do you forecast which currency is next in line to increase?

It is not so much that you want to know when any one currency is going up. You can make profits whether a currency is going up (buy), or down (sell). All Currencies are continually rising and falling relative to other currencies, and forex trading is in fact trading one currency relative to another. Good trading opportunities are always present when you know how to recognize them. Technical analysis using charting software, market sentiment, experience will show you which currencies to pair to trade. Forex Trading is a skill of identifying (and acting on) the probabilities.

How do you choose when to rollover or close positions?

Technical analysis using charting software that (when you learn how to identify what you are seeing) depicts resistance levels (how high it will likely rise to) or support levels (how low it will likely stop dropping at). This is helpful for determining whether to rollover the trade for a bigger forecasted profit the next day. However, a rollover does have additional clearinghouse fees attached. Quick in-and-out trades are closed intentionally with the goal of a smaller profit gain (such as a 4 pip profit).

For example, Beginners, who are learning to read their charts, can do very well closing positions at whatever point they have gained +4 pips profit. This represents a $40. profit (in this example we are trading 1 lot Euro/USD, so 1 pip equals $10.). A $40./4 pip gain is a relatively small move on the chart and may not seem impressive until you consider that If you do this successfully 4 times a day you have made $160. profit. With 4 such daily trades in a four day trading week you will have made $640. (consider also that this is even without the magic of compounding). We leave the monthly and yearly calculations to you.

What indicators do you utilize?

We have tried everything we could ever get our hands on. Over time we have selected the ones that are most consistent and well suited to our trading style. See our review of different indicator tools in Tools of the Trade. You will develop your own trading style (best times of day, favorite currency pairs, best instinctual moving-average chart pattern etc.). But experience with basic technical analysis using charting software is always the starting point. Then you add forex forecasting email subscriptions, Allan Greenspan’s body language (no kidding) etc.

Are there any real time & reliable direct (commission free) market maker entry sites online?

Yes. It is not necessary to pay a clearinghouse (also known as a market maker, or forex brokerage house) an additional ’commission’ for self-trading using their platform/services. They are usually compensated in the ’spread’ between the buy price and sell price.

How to Win the Forex Battle

Every trading activity is in fact participating in a battle. Winning the battle is a matter of knowledge, skill and experience. If you miss any of those you are going to join the long line of losers. Some says that 95 to 99 percent of the traders are lining up on the loser’s side.

How to win the battle in the currency market? It is easy to answer that question, based on the above approach – prepare yourself for the battle. If you treat currency market activity as a hobby you’ll ultimately lose all investments there. If you treat it as a business you still may loose everything.

The correct approach is: consider each pressing of the Buy/Sell button as entering a battlefield. If you enter it without having a knowledge, skill and experience on how to win, you are destined to fail. You may have some lucky trades in the beginning, though. That, by the way, is the worst case scenario for the rookie in trading.

The earlier you get your “bad” lessons, the better for your overall experience. No mater how good you consider yourself prepared, after demo trading lessons, you have no idea of the forces ruling on the real market.

In fact the worst enemy you are going to face in the very beginning is not hiding behind the walls of the global currency trading centers. Your most dangerous foe is hiding deep inside of you. That enemy is so powerful that you will be amazed how quickly it will wash away all your carefully considered decision.

No one has been able to evade the force of that destructive power. No one can understand or realize that force unless it has been confronted face to face. Start trading with real money and you will face it too. Fear, Greed or Hope are some of the names of that power.

Fear forces you to sell near the bottom and buy near the top. Greed forces you to get out of the market prematurely. Hope will keep in the trade until you loose everything. Fear may save you but hope may wreck you completely. Greed will never make you rich.

It is easy to give advice to trade without emotions and use the logic, only. How you can achieve that if you never have been there. You need to go through that turmoil, pick up your loses due to your emotional decisions and than analyze.

Study all your “bad” trades, because they are the most precious gifts on the way to proficiency in trading. Growing as an experienced trader is possible only after getting your losses in the beginning. Then sit down and carefully study the lessons they brought to you.

One thing traders never want to do is to admit of being wrong. The market is a constantly changing and it demands flexibility in taking decision. That implies monitoring and constantly adjusting, changing your decision and action. When your logical analyzes suggest that you are wrong – get out, quickly.

Once you overcome the emotions, concentrate on developing your signature way of trading. You can start with following different advisors and system and picking from them the things you like. Demo trade and test your ideas until you find the trade system which is matching completely your personality.

Now, you have to go back to emotion in a controlled way. Every time your system suggests a trade look inside you and see how you feel about this trade. You feel bad – discard it. If you feel good – keep it.

Here comes the final step: Looking for the final approval sign before submitting the trade. Here is the time, where the mastership shows up. Your weapon is loaded, the target is clearly seen on the visor and the finger is on the trigger. You have to make that final exhale, get the target over the cross point and shoot it.

How much knowledge, skill, experience and patience you need to build within in order to reach that very final stage of trading proficiency? Only you’ll know that and only you can do it. The rest is just numbers in your bank account.

Building a fortune by trading currency is not a mirage in the desert of live. There are hundreds of traders who are making living of that business and you can do it too. Study all you can find on the net and follow the steps of the best if you want to win that battle.

Forex Fundamental Analysis

The two primary approaches of analyzing Forex markets are technical analysis and fundamental analysis. Fundamental analysis comprises the examination of economic indicators, asset markets and political considerations when evaluating a nation’s currency in terms of another. The focus of fundamental analysis lies on the economic, social and political forces that drive supply and demand. There is no single set of beliefs that guide forex fundamental analysis, yet most fundamental analysts look at various macroeconomic indicators such as economic growth rates, interest rates, inflation, and unemployment.

Here we look at some of the major Forex fundamental factors that play a role in the movement of a currency:

Economic Indicators

Economic indicators are reports released by the government or a private organization that detail a country’s economic performance. These economic indicators can be released on a weekly basis, but the more common report is monthly. Indicators are based around a number of economical situations, of which the two primary factors are that of International trade and Interest. Subsidiary factors also include Consumer Price Index (CPI), Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), Durable goods orders, retail sales and Producer Price Index (PPI).

Currency’s Interest Rates

One of the major indicator factors, Interest rates, are a key economic function of any nation. Generally, when a country raises its interest rates, the country’s currency will strengthen in relation to other currencies as assets are shifted to gain a higher return. Interest rates hikes, however, are usually not good news for stock markets. This is due to the fact that many investors will withdraw money from a country’s stock market when there is a hike of interest rates.

International Trade

The trade balance portrays the net difference (over a period of time) between the imports and exports of a nation. A trade deficit can be an economic disaster for a government and a currency. A deficit may appear when a country is importing more than it is exporting, meaning that more money is leaving and less is coming in. In some ways, however, a trade deficit in and of itself is not necessarily a bad thing. A deficit is only negative if the deficit is greater than market expectations and therefore will trigger a negative price movement.

Futures Spread Trading

How professional traders optimize profits

Futures spread trading is probably the most profitable, yet safest way to trade futures. Almost every professional trader uses spreads to optimize his profits. Trading spreads offers many advantages which make it the perfect trading instrument, especially for beginners and traders with small accounts (less than $10,000).

The following example of a Soybean-Spread shows the advantages of futures spread trading:

Example: Long May Soybeans (SK3) and Short November Soybeans (SX3)

Four Advantages of Futures Spread Trading

Advantage 1: Easy to trade

Do you see how nicely this spread starts trending in mid February? Whether you are a beginner or an experienced trader, whether you use chart formations or indicators, the existence of a trend is obvious. (If you are looking for a concept of how to identify a trend, we strongly recommend visiting http://www.tradingeducators.com/?source=Tradejuicetrading_philosophy.htm). Spreads tend to trend much more dramatically than outright futures contracts. They trend without the interference and noise caused by computerized trading, scalpers, and market movers.

Advantage 2: Low Margin requirements

Many spreads have reduced margin requirements, which means that you can afford to put on more positions. While the margin on an outright futures position in corn is $540, a spread trade in corn requires only $135 — 25% as much. That’s a great advantage for traders with a small account. With a $10,000 trading account risking 8% of your account, you can enter 6 corn spreads, instead of only 1-2 outright corn futures trade. How’s that for leverage?

Advantage 3: Higher return on margin

Each point in the spread carries the same value ($50) as each point in the outright futures ($50). That means that on a 3 point favorable move in corn futures or a 3 point favorable move in the spread, you would earn $150. However, the difference in return on margin is extraordinary:
Corn futures - $150/$540 = 27.8% return
Corn spread - $150/$135 = 111% return
And keep in mind that you can trade 6 times as many spread contracts as you can outright futures contracts. In our example you would achieve a 24 times higher return on you margin.

Advantage 4: Low time requirements

You don’t have to watch a spread all day long. You do not need real-time data. The most effective way to trade spreads is using end-of-day data. Therefore, spread trading is the best way to trade if you do not want to watch or cannot watch your computer all day long (i.e. because you have a daytime job). And you can save all the money you would have had to spend for real-time data systems (up to $600 per month).
So where is the catch?
If futures spread trading is so fantastic, why does it seems that hardly anybody trades spreads? Well, it is not true that hardly anybody trades spreads: the professional traders do, every day. But either by accident or design, the whole truth of spread trading has been hidden from the public over the years.
The purpose of this website is to inform you about futures spread trading. In the following we will answer the four frequently asked questions:

What is a spread?
Why trade spreads?
What can you expect when trading spreads?

What Is a Spread?

A spread is defined as the sale of one or more futures contracts and the purchase of one or more offsetting futures contracts. You can turn that around to state that a spread is the purchase of one or more futures contracts and the sale of one or more offsetting futures contracts. A spread is also created when a trader owns (is long) the physical vehicle and offsets by selling (going short) futures. Furthermore, a spread is defined as the purchase and sale of one or more offsetting futures contracts normally recognized as a spread by the fact that the two sides of the spread are actually related in some way. This explicitly excludes those exotic spreads put forth by some vendors, which are nothing more than computer generated coincidences which are not in any way related. Such exotic spreads as Long Bond futures and Short Bean Oil futures may show up as reliable computer generated spreads, but bean oil and bonds are not really related. Such spreads fall into the same category as believing the annual performance of the U.S. stock market is somehow related to the outcome of the Super Bowl sporting event. In any case, for tactical reasons in carrying out a particular strategy, you want to end up with:

simultaneously long futures of one kind in one month, and short futures of the same kind in another month. (Intramarket Calendar Spread)
simultaneously long futures of one kind, and short futures of another kind. (Intermarket Spread)
long futures at one exchange, and short a related futures at another exchange. (Inter-exchange Spread)
long an underlying physical commodity, and short a futures contract. (Hedge)
long an underlying equity position, and short a futures contract. (Hedge)
long financial instruments, and short financial futures. (Hedge)
long a single stock futures and short a sector index.

The primary ways in which this can be accomplished are:

Via an Intramarket spread.
Via an Intermarket spread.
Via an Inter-exchange spread.
By ownership of the underlying and offsetting with a futures contract.

Intramarket Spreads

Officially, Intramarket spreads are created only as calendar spreads. You are long and short futures in the same market, but in different months. An example of an Intramarket spread is that you are Long July Corn and simultaneously Short December Corn.

Intermarket Spreads

An Intermarket spread can be accomplished by going long futures in one market, and short futures of the same month in another market. For example: Short May Wheat and Long May Soybeans.
Intermarket spreads can become calendar spreads by using long and short futures in different markets and in different months.

Inter-Exchange Spreads

A less commonly known method of creating spreads is via the use of contracts in similar markets, but on different exchanges. These spreads can be calendar spreads using different months, or they can be spreads in which the same month is used. Although the markets are similar, because the contracts occur on different exchanges they are able to be spread. An example of an Inter-exchange calendar spread would be simultaneously Long July Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) Wheat, and Short an equal amount of May Kansas City Board of Trade (KCBOT) Wheat. An example of using the same month might be Long December CBOT Wheat and Short December KCBOT Wheat.

Why Spreads?

The rationale behind spread trading is one of the best-kept secrets of the insiders of the futures markets. While spreading is commonly done by the market "insiders," much effort is made to conceal this technique and all of its benefits from "outsiders," you and me. After all, why would the insiders want to give away their edge? By keeping us from knowing about spreading, they retain a distinct advantage.
Spreading is one of the most conservative forms of trading. It is much safer than the trading of outright (naked) futures contracts. Let’s take a quick look at some of the benefits of using spreads:

Intramarket, and some Intermarket, spreads require considerably less margin, typically around 25% - 75% of the margin needed for outright futures positions.
Intramarket, and some Intermarket, spreads offer a far greater return on investment than is possible with outright futures positions. Why? Because you are posting less margin for the same amount of possible return.
Spreads, in general, trend more often than do outright futures.
Spreads often trend when outright futures are flat.
Spreads can be filtered by virtue of seasonality, backwardation, and carrying charge differentials, in addition to any other filters you might be using in your trading.
Spreads can be used to create partial futures positions. In fact, virtually anything that can be done with options on futures can be accomplished via spread trading.
Spreads allow you to take less risk than is available with outright futures positions. The amount of risk between two Intramarket futures positions is usually less than the risk in an outright futures position. The risk between owning the underlying and holding a futures contract involves the least risk of all. Spreads make it possible to hedge any position you might have in the market. Whether you are hedging between physical ownership and futures, or between two futures positions, the risk is lower than that of outright futures. In that sense, every spread is a hedge.
Spread order entry enables you to enter or exit a trade using an actual spread order, or by independently entering each side of the spread (legging in/out).
Spreads are one of the few ways to obtain decent fills by legging in/out during the market Closing.
Live data is not needed for spread trading, saving you $$ in exchange fees.
You will not be the victim of stop running when using Intramarket spreads.

What Can You Expect?

Here is an example of what you can expect from Intramarket spread trading. We think you may be pleasantly surprised!!

This spread was entered not only on the basis of seasonality, but also by virtue of the formation known as a Ross hook (Rh). The spread moved from -69.0 to -7.5 = $3,075 per contract. The margin required to put on this spread was only $608, thus the return on margin is more than 500%.

Here is an example of an Intermarket spread. Look at the the following chart: Would you want to have been long live cattle from December until February?

But, what about a spread between Live Cattle and Feeder Cattle?

The spread moved from -10,200 to -7,200 = $3,000 per contract. The margin required to put on this spread was only $540. The return on margin is more than 550%.

Lastly, we show you another intermarket spread. This one was made between Euro and British Pound. Although you might have made money on a Euro trade, you would have suffered from serious whipsaw during the entire length of the trade.

What about a spread between the Euro and the British Pound?

You didn’t have to be in this spread for very long in order to take some fat profits: During February the spread moved from $32,500 to $36,187.50 = $3,687.50 per contract.

How do I start trading spreads?

We can barely scratch the surface of what is available in the almost lost art of spread trading. There are times when seasonal spreads, coupled with chart formations, make a lot of sense. Backwardation in any market often provides an excellent signal for entry into a spread.

Forex Trading: The Perfect Forex Trading System

Trading the Forex market has become very popular in the last few years. But how difficult is it to achieve success in the Forex trading arena? Or let me rephrase this question, how many traders achieve consistent profitable results trading the Forex market? Unfortunately very few, only about 5% of traders achieve this goal. One of the main reasons of this is because Forex traders focus in the wrong information to make their trading decisions and totally forget about the most important factor: Price behavior.

Most Forex trading systems are made off technical indicators. But what are technical indicators? They are just a series of data points plotted in a chart; these points are derived from a mathematical formula applied to the price of any given currency pair. In other words, it is a chart of price plotted in a different way that helps us see other aspects of price.

There is an important implication on this definition of technical indicators. The fact that the readings obtained from them are based on price action. Take for instance a long MA crossover signal, the price has gone up enough to make the short period MA crossover the long period MA generating a long signal. Most traders see it as "the MA crossover made the price go up," but it happened the other way around, the MA crossover signal occurred because the price went up. Where I’m trying to get here is that at the end, price behavior dictates how an indicator will act, and this should be taken into consideration on any trading decision made.

Trading decisions based on technical indicators without taking price action into consideration will give us less accurate results. For example, again a long signal generated by a MA crossover as the market approaches an important resistance level. If the price suddenly starts to bounce back off that important level there is no point on taking this signal, price action is telling us the market doesn’t want to go up. Most of the time, under this circumstances, the market will continue to fall down, disregarding the MA crossover.

Don’t get me wrong here, technical indicators are a very important aspect of trading. They help us see certain conditions that are otherwise difficult to see by watching pure price action. But when it comes to pull the trigger, price action incorporation into our Forex trading system will definitely put the odds in our favor, it will generate higher probability trades.

So, how to create a perfect Forex trading system?

First of all, you need to make sure your trading system fits your trading personality; otherwise you will find it hard to follow it. Every trader has different needs and goals, thus there is no system that perfectly fits all traders. You need to make your own research on various trading styles and technical indicators until you find a concept that perfectly works for you. Make sure you know the nature of whatever technical indicator used.
Secondly, incorporate price action into your system. So you only take long signals if the price behavior tells you the market wants to go up, and short signals if the market gives you indication that it will go down.
Third, and most importantly, you need to have the discipline to follow your Forex trading system rigorously. Try it first on a demo account, then move on to a small account and finally when feeling comfortably and being consistent profitable apply your system in a regular account.

The Importance of Identifying Favorable Stock Chart Patterns

To be a successful investor it’s important to look for those stocks which are forming a favorable chart pattern such as a "Cup and Handle", "Double Bottom" or "Flat Base". In 2002 some of the best performing stocks exhibited the above mentioned chart patterns before breaking out and undergoing significant price appreciation.

Here are a few stocks that exhibited a "Cup and Handle" pattern before breaking above their Pivot Points on strong volume. CBZ formed a 7 month Cup from July of 2001 until February of 2002 and then developed 3 week Handle (H) before breaking above its Pivot Point in early April on strong volume. After breaking out of its Handle CBZ appreciated nearly 155%.

FSTW formed a 1 year Cup from January of 2001 until January of 2002 and then developed a 9 week Handle. FSTW then broke out of its Handle and above its Pivot Point in April accompanied by strong volume. After breaking out of its Handle FSTW appreciated nearly 225% over the next few months.

HL formed a shallow 9 month Cup from May of 2001 until February of 2002 and then developed a 4 week Handle (H). It then broke out of its Handle and above its Pivot Point in late March on good volume. After breaking out of its Handle HL gained nearly 275% over the next few months.

MWRK formed a 5 month Cup from September of 2001 into the early part of 2002 and then formed a 4 week Handle (H). MWRK then broke out of its Handle and above its Pivot Point in early March. After breaking out of its Handle MWRK gained nearly 200% over the next several months.

Another chart pattern to look for is the "Double Bottom" which looks like the letter "W". Here is a stock (CFI) that formed a Double Bottom pattern from May of 2000 into the early part of 2002 and then developed a small 3 week Handle (H) before breaking out in March accompanied by strong volume. After breaking out in March CFI gained nearly 170% over the next four months.

The third type of chart pattern to look for is called a "Flat Base". Flat Bases form as a stock basically trades sideways for several weeks or months. CVU formed a Flat Base for nearly 6 months before breaking out in April on good volume and appreciated over 300% over the next few months.

TENT is another example of a stock which formed a Flat Base for 10 months before breaking out in the early part of 2002. After breaking out TENT appreciated nearly 450% over the next 6 months.

These are some of the chart patterns you should be looking for when deciding which stocks to invest in. Investing in a stock which doesn’t have a favorable looking chart pattern can lead to poor performance while other stocks which are breaking out of a favorable chart pattern ("Cup and Handle", "Double Bottom" and "Flat Base") undergo significant price appreciation. Also if you examine the stocks mentioned above they all broke out of a favorable chart pattern on strong volume as well.

Five Reasons You Have to Start Forex Trading

Why should you consider foreign exchange, or forex trading? One compelling reason is that it is a huge business, trading nearly two trillion U.S. dollars on a daily basis. The potential to make money is out there for the well-informed trader. The forex market is the largest in the world. It is larger than the U.S. stock market, and has a daily trading volume larger than all the world's stock markets combined. The following list provides a few reasons why forex trading is a smart move. 1. It's Easy If you feel the idea of trading on the stock market is intimidating, you're not alone. There is no way that anyone, including professional brokers, can know enough about all the stock options. Therefore, many traders specialize or focus on particular areas of the stock market, and many individuals are left to rely on the opinions of the professionals, who may or may not be good at their craft. Trading on the forex market, in contrast, is much simpler. The primary currencies traded are the U.S. dollar, the Japanese yen, and the British pound. There is less to keep track of, so conducting research and analysis can be much easier. 2. You Can Do it from Home If you're interested in getting involved in forex trading, all you need is a computer and a bit of time. Granted, conducting some research is wise if you want to make the best choices. But once you have an idea of your strategy, you can conduct transactions online for minimal fees and without having to pay a professional to do it for you (although this is an option). There are a number of online options for trading foreign exchange, so you'll need to conduct some research to determine the best choice for you. If you know others who trade this way, ask for their preferences. Conducting a simple Google search on forex trading will yield many results, so review and choose carefully. 3. The Investment is Minimal To get involved in currency trading, you do not need to invest a lot of cash upfront. Many trading options are available for a small investment, some as low as a few hundred dollars. This allows new traders in particular to get involved, learn the process, and risk very little. To trade in the forex market, you need to determine your risk limit, and not invest above that amount. Because the initial investment can be low, many people can get involved that may not be able to invest in other options, such as traditional stocks. Forex trading is a good way to enter the trading market. 4. You Can Make Money While trading on the forex market takes some research, skill, and a bit of luck, it is possible to make money. The potential for huge payoffs is at times exaggerated, but there are traders making large amounts of money in this market. The key is to learn what you are doing and make smart choices. This can include determining how much you are able and willing to risk, taking risks when necessary, and learning as much as you can about the market. Trading on the forex market also offers you more leverage than in other markets. You can use smaller amounts of money to your advantage, and the trading process is simpler than in other markets. 5. It's Flexible Trading on the Foreign Exchange market is a 24-hour process, which means that you don't need to wait for the opening and closing of the exchange to know where you stand. You can make trades at any time of the day, which gives you much more control than if you are operating in the traditional stock market. This also allows traders to respond to breaking news immediately. The advantages of real-time trading are advantageous in that traders have a much better understanding of their investments. Conversely, in the traditional stock market, after-hours activities, for example, can affect stock values, but the affects are not immediately available. If you're interested in trading on the forex market, do your research. Many trading companies provide free information online. The more you know, the better you decisions you'll be able to make. Many of these same companies offer free trial periods as well, which you can use to get your feet wet and determine if currency trading is for you. **** Mike Singh is a finance enthusiast who writes articles about variety of fiscal topics. Checkout more Forex-related articles at

Forex Signal Trading Gives the Traders One More Analytical Tool

Forex signal trading has emerged as an important support service for forex traders. This service is run either by forex brokers or by independent analysts who monitor and analyze the forex market. These analysts identify forex trends using several indicators. Based on this analysis, they suggest profitable entry and exit points to forex traders for a fee.

Most analysts offer signals for only the most popular currency pairs, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD and USD/CHF. However, there are some specialty services also that offer signals for the lesser-traded pairs.

The charges for these services vary from analyst to analyst, and depend upon the range of services bought by the trader. For instance, a basic subscription service offers email alerts of entry/exit opportunities to traders while a more comprehensive service provides this information through SMS, cell phone or pager alerts also.

Some signal trading services also provide live charts for the traders to make their judgment. Irrespective of the level of service, a trader should be prepared to pay a minimum subscription fee of $100 a month.

However, the success of a forex signal service should not be measured in isolation or over a relatively short period of time. The traders should use these signal services only as an extra indicator, as one more tool in their trading toolbox. A good way to judge the analytical skills of signal trading service is to ask for historical data. This can expose the claims of trading signal service.

The biggest benefit of signal trading services is that they save the traders the bother of analyzing or crunching data. However, this does not mean that the traders should depend upon them exclusively to maximize their profits or minimize their losses. This should happen only when the traders develop sufficient trust in certain signal trading services. Otherwise, the traders should use their own judgment and market grapevine to decide the trades.

While Forex signal trading gives the trader’s one more analytical tool, each trader must use his or her best judgment before making the trade. Forex signal trading software is a great tool, but should never be used solely to base the trade decision upon. You would be better off relying on your past experience and gut instinct when analyzing signal trading data. You will also want to rely on your basic fundamental analysis. Forex traders using fundamental analysis rely on news reports to gather information about unemployment rates, economic policies, inflation, and growth rates.

The FOREX Market- Trade with your head not your heart!

Sounds simple…right? In actuality, this is the number one reason why day traders lose their shirts. They let their emotions get the best of them and end up doing something real stupid. Trust me I’ve done it.

When trading currency, you need to take yourself away from the platform and look at your trades in actual bills not numerical values on a computer screen. For example, let’s say you short the USD/JPY for a 50 mini-lot right before a data release and it tanks. The USD/JPY goes down about 50 some odd pips and now you’re up $2500 in about thirty seconds.

Now, if you were smart, you would close the position and take your profit, but you’re not and you decide to let it ride. The market goes down about another 10 pips. So, now you’re up $3000 and you still won’t close it. You think that it’s going to keep tanking and that you could make 5-6k on this one trade…wishful thinking.

All of sudden the market retraces and shoots back up 20 pips, your still up about $2000, but now you tell yourself, I’ll wait until it goes back down a few pips and then close it. Too late, the market ignites and now you’re break-even and then you’re negative. In the end you take a $500 loser, which isn’t too bad, but considering you were up $3000 it’s like you lost $3500.

Now, let’s pretend you did this same trade with actual, physical dollar bills. Now or days most people trade from a three wide spread, so let’s say that you gave a trade booker $150 cash to place a short USD/JPY 50 lot. The data is released and this man keeps giving you $50 bills and before you know it you have $3000 in your hands. In order to keep this money all you have to say is close.

You decide to press your luck and wait and the market continues to trend down and now you have $3500 cash. All of sudden, the market begins to retrace and this nice young man starts taking $50 from you each pip it retraces. How many pips does the market have to retrace before you say close? Maybe, ten pips? Once you saw actual dollar bills being taken away from you, you would throw in the towel. So, how does one improve their money management skills?

First of all, realize that you are trading real money. I’m sure you realize that the money you are trading is real money, but do you conceptualize it? When you make a few hundred or a few thousand dollars trading, do you feel like someone just handed you cash? Of course not! Every time you’re trading, no matter if you are profitable or not profitable visualize and grasp the outcome. Don’t just watch your balance and equity fluctuate; you need to relate your loss and gains to every day life.

For example, let’s say you have a 10k account and in the first week you doubled that to 20k. You need to step back and understand what you just accomplished; you just made 10k in one week by sitting in front of your computer and trading currency. Now, let’s take that money and put it to everyday use. If you were handed a free 10k, what would you do with the money?

Would you pay of some debt, by a car, put money down on a home, go on a vacation, put it towards school, I think you get the gist. All I’m saying is that 10k is yours, you own it and there is no reason you have to keep in the FOREX. You are that 10% that succeeded this week, but the law of averages states that you are most likely to be the 90% next week. If not next week then the week after and if not then, eventually you will.

If you invest 10k and your account doubles to 20k, why would you pull out 15k leave in 5k and go for the gusto? If you lose your remaining 5k who cares you still made 5k in a week at your computer. Tell me another investment where I can make 50% on a 10k investment in one week. Turn around the following week pull my initial investment and my profit and still have 5k to play with. If I hadn’t experienced this first hand then I would have never believed it. DO NOT GIVE YOUR WINNINGS BACK TO THE MARKET! It’s not worth it.

The Importance of Identifying Favorable Stock Chart Patterns

TENT is another example of a stock which formed a Flat Base for 10 months before breaking out in the early part of 2002. After breaking out TENT appreciated nearly 450% over the next 6 months.